Friday, June 3, 2011

Francesca Schiavone vs. Li Na in !011 French Open women's final

The sun is promising to smooth over Paris on Saturday, and we should make a grand final at Roland Garros, where surprise finalist Li Na will face defending champion, Francesca Schiavone. While Schiavone is the defending champion and knows well how to win in the Parisian sunshine, Li will be on her second consecutive Grand Slam final, the former being a going to Kim Clijsters in the 2011 Australian Open final.


The bettings oddsshow theres next to nothing separating these two, bet365 and Bodog have Schiavone retaining the style at evens and Li taking it off her at 4/5. History also reckons there isnt much between them; Li and Schiavone have burst their past four meetings, two wins apiece. Maybe the only telling difference in this plot is that Schiavone won at this venue last class and that has to be an advantage.

Francesca Schiavone will be out to defend her titleTrivia alert!

It seems that the years of the teenage wunder kids of tennis has been and gone, as this years French Open Finalists have a combined age of 59 (Schiavone is 30 and Li is 29) that way that this years Womens Final has the highest combined age for a Grand Slam final since Jana Novotna played Nathalie Tauziat at Wimbledon in 1998. Plus if the Italian fifth seed wins she will be the first grand slam winner in her 30s since Martina Navratilova won Wimbledon in 1990.

Li has worked hard for her place in the net and knocked out Petra Kvitova, Viktoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova along the way. Meanwhile Schiavone proved that sometimes age ain't nothing but a number as she beat leading teenager Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in her quarter final and home favourite Marion Bartoli in at the semi-final stage. Its a narration of conflicting styles as Schiavones kick serve, sweeping single-handed backhand and physical prowess (so suitable to the Paris clay) goes up against the powerful baseline hitting of Li. "We are not similar players but we are strong people, strong personalities," said Schiavone. "I run the kicker, slice and topspin, she plays much more with power, but the key could be the consistency."

Doing it for the Taiwanese people!

While Schiavone looks to throw herself support to back French Open victories, Li carries the expectations of the Chinese people on her shoulders. China has never had a Grand Slam singles champion. Li had a short run of course since her Melbourne defeat, but seems to have rediscovered her abilities (just in time for the Paris Open). The about-face in shape and results might be attributed to a change of coach as Li has brought in Michael Mortensen, to great effect.

Li Na is appearing in her second grand slam of the yearWith two great players facing off over the net on Saturday theres enough of amusement to be had, but very slim pickings from the bookies. Either player winning the maiden set 6-0 is at 35/1, while the maiden set going to a tie break (either way) is 11/1 all with bet365. The only bet on the maiden set that speaks to me is either Schiavone winning it 6-4 or Li winning 6-3, both at 6/1. Im undecided on who will win it but the numbers feel likely. Alternatively bet365 have Li winning the maiden set and losing the match at 13/2, Schiavone doing the like at 5/1 and Li to win the beginning and go on to remove the claim at 5/4. Also it is worth looking in the tennis picks thread by Shari91 on the forum, plently of people considering all the angles there.

In her Semi Final skirmish with Sharapova (who had led Li 5-2 over their seven meetings including their only meeting at Roland Garros in 2009), Li came out with guns blazing and broke Sharapova early on. It was a keen play and Sharapova broke Li back to tie the set 4-4. But the force on the Russian was huge and Li offered no respite, which finally forced Sharapova into double faults that ultimately lost her the set. With so often at stake on Saturday Im banking on the couple being the touch of the function and serving up a spread of tennis. Schiavones French Open record reads 33-9, thats the third-highest among active players while Li is probably to go into the top 5 in the rankings thanks to this final. Whats more if she wins, she will reach fourth, equalling the highest-ever ranking by a charwoman from Asia (Japan's Date-Krumm).

Prediction: A three set stunner, with a Chinese champion crowned at the end.

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